A focused, profitable DTC engine. ~£115k / month April run-rate, 50%+ repeat revenue, Hackney Half as fuel partner. 8.6× revenue growth since December. H2 2026: the fall marathon season. 2027+: the category re-definition.
SAP GOOD ENERGY — APRIL 2026 — CONFIDENTIAL
| Cohort | Size | M0 rev | M+1 | M+2 | M+3 | M+4 | M+5 | Repeat £ | M+3 LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● Sep '25 · 658 | 658 | £18,908 | £4,131 | £1,814 | £3,223 | £3,676 | £3,686 | £22,044 | £42.7 |
| ● Oct '25 · 390 | 390 | £11,942 | £1,487 | £1,857 | £1,876 | £1,752 | £2,207 | £11,378 | £41.6 |
| ● Nov '25 · 37 | 37 | £573 | £22 | £44 | £93 | £72 | £44 | £314 | £19.2 |
| ● Dec '25 · 276 | 276 | £8,347 | £1,669 | £1,709 | £2,473 | £937 | — | £6,788 | £51.1 |
| ● Jan '26 · 1,296 | 1,296 | £37,430 | £12,518 | £16,710 | £5,032 | — | — | £34,260 | £51.6 |
| ● Feb '26 · 1,326 | 1,326 | £36,008 | £15,470 | £6,493 | — | — | — | £21,962 | £43.4 |
| ● Mar '26 · 1,783 | 1,783 | £50,425 | £5,800 | — | — | — | — | £5,800 | — tracking |
| ● Apr '26 · ~1,500* | ~1,500 | ~£40k | — | — | — | — | — | — | — through Apr 23 |
| BEFORE Pre-session · race morning | DURING · SHORT Marathon · 10k · tempo | DURING · LONG Ultra · Ironman · bike | AFTER Recovery · within 30min | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEL | SAP Coffee Q3 '26 · 75mg caff | SAP25 LIVE · the flagship | SAP40 LIVE · SAP90 Q3 '26 | SAP Recovery Q3 '27 · tart cherry |
| DRINK MIX | SAP MIX Coffee Q2 '27 | gel territory | SAP MIX Q3 '26 · bottle / flask | future extension |
| SOLID | SAP Bar Q4 '27 | gel territory | SAP Bar Q4 '27 · on-bike | future extension |
| SNACK / XSELL | SAP Matcha Q1 '27 · Gen Z crossover | — | — | — |
| Month | Total rev | From new | From prior cohorts | Repeat share | Orders | Blended AOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec '25 | £13.4k | £8.3k | £5.1k | 38% | 457 | £29.4 |
| Jan '26 | £44.7k | £37.4k | £7.3k | 16% | 1,609 | £27.8 |
| Feb '26 | £55.8k | £36.0k | £19.8k | 35% | 2,013 | £27.7 |
| Mar '26 · partial stockout | £91.8k | £50.4k | £41.4k | 45% | 3,186 | £28.8 |
| Apr '26 · through Apr 23 | ~£77k | ~£40k | ~£37k | 48% | ~2,750 | £28 |
| Apr '26 · full-month projection | ~£115k | ~£55k | ~£60k | 52% | ~4,100 | £28 |
SAP Coffee + SAP90 + SAP MIX in market. Early testing with ambassadors. Creative ramps.
Winning creatives per SKU. Bundle tests. Sub flows per product. Spend ramps £1k/day.
Spend £1–1.5k/day. Berlin + Bristol races. Matcha drop announced. Target: £300k/mo.
London + Chicago + Frankfurt. Matcha limited drop. Race-week bundles.
NYC + Athens. Full-range checkout experience. Raise priced on realised numbers.
| Lever | Today (Apr) | September '26 | Multiplier | Revenue contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New customers / month | ~1,900 | 4,200 | 2.2× | £170k (new) |
| Blended AOV | £28 | £42 | 1.5× | bundled in new + repeat |
| Daily ad spend | £500 | £1,300 | 2.6× | enables new-cust lever |
| Repeat-revenue stack | ~£60k / mo | £130k / mo | 2.2× | £130k (repeat) |
| + Range expansion uplift | — | +£40k / mo | new | Coffee · 90 · MIX cross-sell |
| → September run-rate | £170k new + £130k repeat + £40k range | £340k / mo | ||
5 SKUs live. Win fall season. Hackney Half, London, Manchester. 4-sport demand surface.
UK 3PL already has US warehouse. Matcha + MIX Coffee + Recovery + Bar launch. Seed round at £20M val.
Dedicated EU fulfilment. Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam activations. SAP HOME R&D delivers. ~£14M revenue.
Japan (marathon), Australia (endurance), UAE (Dubai circuit). Regional partners.
| Period | Monthly run-rate | ARR equiv |
|---|---|---|
| Now (Apr '26) | ~£115k | £1.4M |
| Jul '26 (launches) | £190k | £2.3M |
| Sep '26 — target | £340k | £4.1M |
| Dec '26 | £280k | £3.4M · post-peak |
| FY '27 plan | £500k+ | £6M+ · US launch + 4 new SKUs |
| Line | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 * | 2030 * |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | £2.0M | £6.0M | £14.0M | £30M | £60M |
| SKUs live | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10+ HOME | 10+ HOME |
| Gross margin % | 60% | 62% | 63% | 64% | 65% |
| Gross profit | £1.2M | £3.7M | £8.8M | £19.2M | £39.0M |
| EBITDA % | −10% | 5% | 15% | 18% | 22% |
| EBITDA | −£0.2M | £0.3M | £2.1M | £5.4M | £13.2M |
| Strategic focus | UK · fall · Coffee + 90 + MIX | US launch · +Matcha + MIX Coffee + Recovery + Bar | UK mature · US scale · EU | EU mature · SAP HOME | APAC · ME · category leader |
| Brand | Category re-founded | Ingredient story | Outcome | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXBar | Protein bar | "No B.S." / whole food | Kellogg's 2017 · $600M | ~6× revenue |
| Liquid Death | Canned water | Aluminium · plastic-free | Last round · $1.4B val | ~10× revenue |
| Huel | Meal replacement | Plant-based whole food | Last round · $560M val | ~4× revenue |
| Puresport | CBD / recovery | Natural / endurance | Private · profitable | — |
| Surreal | Cereal | High protein / no sugar | Series A '23 | — |
| Styrkr | Endurance carb mix | "Clean carbs" · maltodextrin | Est. £5M+ ARR · 2024 | Direct comp |
conor@sapgoodenergy.com · james@sapgoodenergy.com · www.sapgoodenergy.com
| Cohort | Size | Sep '25 | Oct '25 | Nov '25 | Dec '25 | Jan '26 | Feb '26 | Mar '26 | Apr '26* | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● Sep '25 | 658 | £18,908 | £4,131 | £1,814 | £3,223 | £3,677 | £3,686 | £4,441 | ~£2,500 | ~£42,380 |
| ● Oct '25 | 390 | — | £11,942 | £1,487 | £1,857 | £1,876 | £1,752 | £2,207 | ~£3,700 | ~£24,821 |
| ● Nov '25 | 37 | — | — | £573 | £22 | £44 | £93 | £72 | ~£75 | ~£879 |
| ● Dec '25 | 276 | — | — | — | £8,347 | £1,669 | £1,709 | £2,473 | ~£1,600 | ~£15,798 |
| ● Jan '26 | 1,296 | — | — | — | — | £37,430 | £12,518 | £16,710 | ~£8,600 | ~£75,258 |
| ● Feb '26 | 1,326 | — | — | — | — | — | £36,008 | £15,470 | ~£11,100 | ~£62,578 |
| ● Mar '26 | 1,783 | — | — | — | — | — | — | £50,425 | ~£9,900 | ~£60,325 |
| ● Apr '26* | ~1,500 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ~£40,000 | ~£40,000 |
| Monthly total | ~7,100 | £18,908 | £16,073 | £3,874 | £13,449 | £44,696 | £55,767 | £91,798 | ~£77,500 | ~£322k |